Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 2.258751 2.386414 2.524559 2.686540 2.873150 3.083844 3.343442
2025-08-10 2.085802 2.237442 2.407408 2.615043 2.866361 3.167275 3.566157
2025-08-17 1.996229 2.164145 2.357101 2.600035 2.905440 3.288909 3.830475
2025-08-24 1.929643 2.108345 2.317552 2.587105 2.936319 3.392381 4.073308
2025-08-31 1.877175 2.063634 2.285169 2.576005 2.962343 3.484301 4.304012
2025-09-07 1.848217 2.043897 2.279761 2.595237 3.025138 3.627108 4.627028
2025-09-14 1.779987 1.972155 2.204856 2.517983 2.948277 3.558088 4.591045
2025-09-21 1.748508 1.943968 2.182663 2.507461 2.960863 3.618317 4.775479
2025-09-28 1.707530 1.902006 2.140609 2.467302 2.927400 3.603371 4.820297
2025-10-05 1.708213 1.911620 2.164062 2.515087 3.020627 3.788979 5.258825
2025-10-12 1.718532 1.933022 2.202630 2.584116 3.147873 4.040133 5.884516
2025-10-19 1.700422 1.917026 2.190853 2.581393 3.165466 4.107902 6.133532
2025-10-26 1.684732 1.904423 2.184027 2.586572 3.197291 4.206298 6.485848
2025-11-02 1.643063 1.856943 2.129014 2.520432 3.113617 4.091860 6.293195
2025-11-09 1.623542 1.837626 2.110985 2.506347 3.110423 4.120354 6.461859
2025-11-16 1.606124 1.820435 2.095045 2.494191 3.108757 4.149726 6.634896
2025-11-23 1.590508 1.805076 2.080919 2.483735 3.108492 4.180060 6.813251
2025-11-30 1.586480 1.804498 2.086359 2.501285 3.153043 4.295951 7.257557
2025-12-07 1.550234 1.760867 2.032238 2.429744 3.049259 4.120792 6.806575
2025-12-14 1.537742 1.748297 2.020207 2.419845 3.046002 4.139139 6.941086
2025-12-21 1.515764 1.722852 1.990103 2.382515 2.996409 4.065265 6.787191
2025-12-28 1.524292 1.737613 2.014964 2.426590 3.081626 4.257213 7.487292
2026-01-04 1.539507 1.761308 2.052363 2.490184 3.202298 4.532644 8.612493